Preliminary analysis, based on 2003 data, conducted by Scott Murray^{Note 1} projects the proportion of Manitobans with literacy levels below Level 3 forward from 2003 to 2016. His findings indicate that, although younger people have higher literacy scores than those in the past, the projected size of the adult group with low literacy scores will not decline by 2016 simply as a result of improved school performance. A high percentage of adult individuals with low literacy are and will be employed. One of Murray’s main conclusions, therefore, is that the solution to the adult literacy problem is in upgrading the literacy skills of existing working age adults.

The economic impacts of low literacy, particularly among adults, are not sufficiently recognized by employers. Research indicates that Canadian employers do not invest in employee training and skill development at a level comparable to many other developed countries. International studies estimate that countries with 1% higher average literacy scores experience 1.5% higher GDP per capita. With shifting economic realities, including global communication and international commerce, the productivity of Manitoba’s labour force will be a crucial factor in the province’s future.

In addition to addressing the skill levels of working age Manitobans, there are several groups that require particular attention:

• Demographic projections indicate that Aboriginal peoples will play a more prominent role in Manitoba’s future labour force. There are unique needs with respect to literacy and language among Manitoba’s Aboriginal populations.
• Skilled immigrants are viewed in Manitoba as an important source of future labour supply. Many new immigrants face language barriers to full labour market participation.
• There are other population groups with particular literacy needs — francophone, under employed and unemployed.