As the graph shows, these averages hide a broad range of results across the province. The number of learners who achieved their goals (represented by gold) varies from 15% to nearly 90%. This discrepancy was explored to a small extent during the consultation phase of the project. We learned there are differences in the ways colleges define learner success. Some colleges, for example, view learner success as achievement of the long-term goal, which for many learners means getting into their post secondary programs. Since these goals may be years away, relatively few learners are able to commit this much time to their education at any one point in their lives. Even though learners might have progressed through one or more LBS levels before exiting a program, they would still not be considered statistically successful. Other colleges define learner success as achievement of the short-term program goal, i.e., what learners can achieve within the time they are prepared to commit to the program.

Another large discrepancy exists in the number of withdrawals (represented by blue and green) from programs last year. This number ranges from 11% in one program to 85% in another. While we cannot explain this discrepancy, we do know that clarification for terms like college-initiated and learner-initiated withdrawal is needed. In Seeing the Need: Meeting the Need, Roussy and Hart pose an interesting question, “At what point in time do absent learners become dropouts?” Without more data, it is not even possible to answer questions like this.

Likewise there is a major discrepancy in the numbers of learners who are withdrawn or exited by colleges (represented by blue alone). This number ranges from 0% to 48%. Perhaps we can explain part of this discrepancy. Many college LBS programs have policies in place that specify the reasons for withdrawing learners. They include poor attendance, lack of progress and inappropriate behaviour. It may be that some colleges enforce those policies more aggressively than others. With the exception of colleges that have a very high success rate, though, we know very little about why other colleges withdraw relatively few learners.

While the graph may present an alarming picture of withdrawals (6,471 out of 10,259 learners in 2000/ 2001), it may not be a surprising one to most LBS college practitioners, who see learners struggle with situational and personal barriers on a daily basis.

A second graph raises other questions about goal-setting. Research related to student retention in adult literacy programs consistently emphasizes how critical it is for learners to set achievable, realistic goals. This graph compares two pieces of information – learners’ goals at entry and learners’ goals at exit. It also illustrates a serious discordance. At entry, 74% of learners have further education and training as their goal;