Who is considering upgrading?

Only 25 per cent of respondents think they might take upgrading in the next 5 years, even though 58 per cent have considered doing so at some point since leaving school.

It is important to note that our sample includes people of widely different ages.

It is not meaningful to compare a 50 year old who has avoided upgrading for 30 years with a 20 year old who has done so for only a few years.

In order to distinguish different types of respondents and to make meaningful comparisons, this study has adopted the terms "Persisters," "Discontinuers," and "Uninterested."

Persisters are those who have considered taking a program in the past and still expect to take one in the future. Discontinuers have considered upgrading, but no longer expect to join a program. Those classed as Uninterested have not considered upgrading, and do not expect to do so.

Although interviewees in the 30 to 49 age group represent the majority of Persisters in this study (51 per cent), the 18 to 29 age group has by far the highest proportion of Persisters (over 75 per cent).

What is the influence of high need?

In this study, high needs comprises the group of people who feel that they have one or more weaknesses in basic skills that needs upgrading.

Although knowing how interviewees assess their own skills does not help us to predict whether they have considered upgrading, it does help us to predict whether an interest in upgrading, once aroused, will be sustained.

Among those we have identified as high needs based on self-reports, 66 per cent are Persisters. When a specific objective like entering postsecondary education is added, the proportion of Persisters rises to more than 80 per cent.

In other words, interviewees acutely aware of weaknesses in basic skills are significantly more likely to have a continuing interest in taking programs.

Likewise, expectations of taking a program seem to be higher for those facing more barriers in terms of lack of family support and risk of poverty.

This is confirmed when looking, by gender and household status, at responses of interviewees who expect to upgrade in the next five years.

So why then have they not enrolled?