While there is considerable debate about the relative importance of these factors, very little formal research has been conducted. What follows is a brief discussion of the role that each of these factors may play.
Economic growth: The role of economic growth is particularly complex and has not been assessed in a systematic way. From an anecdotal standpoint, many program administrators in Alberta believe that Alberta’s strong economy has made skills upgrading a less attractive option. Similarly, many administrators in Nova Scotia believe that the province-wide economic restructuring that has taken place in the last several years has been a significant driver of increased participation. Prior to the recent implementation of the GED, Québec had a long experience with the “Test d’équivalence de niveau de scolarité” (TENS). On average, the number of tests passed annually would run between 4,000 and 4,500. It would jump to 12,000 in a high unemployment year. It can be difficult to disentangle economic effects from the effects of program changes that may have occurred during the same time period. For example, at the same time that British Columbia’s unemployment rate was declining, the government introduced tuition fees for adult basic education programs.21 It is possible that both factors drove participation downwards (Ministry of Advanced Education, 2005).
Lack of interest: Lack of interest is often cited as a potential reason for lack of participation. While existing data show some support for this hypothesis, data also show that among individuals without a high-school education, there is significant unmet demand for training. The 2003 Adult Education and Training Survey conducted by Statistics Canada measured demand for training by asking respondents whether there was training they wanted to take but did not take. As Table 4.5 shows, on average 20 percent of individuals reported that they would have liked to pursue additional training. This figure, drops to 9 percent when we considered only respondents without a high-school diploma. While this figure is relatively low, (especially compared to 28 percent for respondents with a university degree), it is worth noting that if this unmet demand had been met, the participation rate for those without a high-school diploma would have almost doubled.22 Moreover, among those who already took some training, the level of unmet demand was significantly higher (22 percent). This suggests that while many individuals with a less than high-school diploma may not be interested in pursuing further education, a non-trivial proportion is interested. In other words, while lack of interest is an important part of the puzzle, it is by no means the whole story.
21 The BC government has since returned to providing adult basic education
programs with free tuition.
22 Of course, this finding should be treated with caution since it is unclear
how closely reported demand would reflect actual behaviour. For example, respondents
may say that they would have liked to take a course because they believed that
was the socially desirable response.