The rise in educational attainment is also driven by a small but significant proportion of early school leavers who return to school later in life. Table 2.2 uses data from the past four Canadian censuses to track the educational achievements of birth cohorts over time. Reading across the table for any year of birth shows the percentage of individuals in that birth cohort that do not have a high-school diploma at a given age.⁴ For example, 31.2 percent of Canadians born in 1961 did not have a high-school diploma when they were 25. Five years later, 25.8 percent of Canadians born in 1961 (who are now 30) were still without a high-school diploma. Perhaps the most striking finding of this table is that individuals continue to acquire educational credentials relatively late in their lives. For example, 1.6 percent of the population born in 1961 obtained an advanced credential between 1996 (when they were 35) and 2001 (when they were 40).

This table also reinforces just how sharply the graduation rate has increased over time. Reading down the table shows the proportion of individuals without a high-school diploma at a given age for successive birth cohorts. Table 2.2 shows that for the cohort born in 1961, at age 25, 31.2 percent of these individuals did not have a high-school diploma. If we take the cohort born in 1976, we see that the drop out rate had declined significantly with only 17.2 percent of individuals not having a high-school diploma at age 25.

Source: Authors’ calculations from the 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001 census public use master file

Who is left behind?

However, the news is not all good. The number of individuals of working age without a highschool diploma is still quite substantial. The 2001 figure of 24.7 percent of Canadians 25-64 without a high-school diploma (Table 2.1) equates to slightly more than 4 million individuals.⁵. And as Table 2.3 shows, the dropout rate is higher for some groups than others. Among 20 to 22 year olds, the dropout rate is 15 percent for males compared to 9 percent for females. There is also significant variation in the dropout rate across provinces. For 20- to 22-year-olds, youths residing in Alberta, Québec and Manitoba had higher dropout rates (respectively 16, 14 and 14 percent), while youths residing in New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and Ontario had dropout rates lower than ten percent (Table 2.4).

⁴ Since immigrants tend to have relatively high levels of education, the flow of immigrants could artificially increase the number of high-school graduates. Our analysis controls for this effects by excluding recent immigrants. In the 30, 35, and 40 year old categories, individuals who immigrated to Canada within the past 5, 10, or 15 years, respectively are excluded.
⁵ Estimates for the proportion of adults without a high-school diploma differ slightly depending on whether individuals with some post-secondary education, but with no high-school diploma, are included (it is possible to participate in some postsecondary courses without a high-school diploma). Our estimate includes individuals with post-secondary experience if they did not obtain a post-secondary credential as a result of this experience. This approach reflects the importance that is typically attached to credentials in the labour market and assumes that individuals with some post-secondary gain little from this experience unless they obtain either a high-school diploma (or its equivalent) or a post-secondary credential as a result of this experience.